Two election contests unfolding across dramatically different political terrain Tuesday—one in a heavily Democratic Georgia district and another in reliably Republican South Dakota—illustrate the contrasting electoral dynamics shaping American politics in 2026.
In Georgia's 13th Congressional District, voters are selecting a replacement for Rep. David Scott, who died in April at age 80. The special election will fill the remainder of his term in a district that encompasses southern and eastern Atlanta suburbs including Stockbridge, Conyers and Snellville. Scott, a 12-term Democratic incumbent, had represented the seat since 1997.
The Georgia contest reflects a familiar pattern: a deep blue district with a decisive Democratic advantage. Voters across the southern and eastern Atlanta suburbs have consistently favored Democratic candidates in federal elections, and Tuesday's special election is expected to follow that trend. The Democratic primary effectively determines the winner in this electoral environment.
Several candidates are competing to succeed Scott, with the race partly shaped by generational politics. Everton Blair, a millennial candidate, framed his campaign as bringing new leadership to the district and positioned himself as "a voice for a new generation." His campaign messaging emphasized that "change can't wait, and Democrats need a new bench of leaders who are committed to solving real problems for working people."
This echoed national conversations about congressional succession following President Joe Biden's 2024 withdrawal from the presidential race—a moment in which younger Democratic candidates increasingly challenged aging incumbents in primary contests.
Scott's daughter also entered the race, positioning herself as the continuity candidate. She told the Georgia Recorder that her primary goal was to "finish out his year strongly, make sure that this money gets down to the district, and just make sure the 13th district is taken care of, constituency-wise." She committed to retaining her father's existing staff both locally and in Washington.
Across the country, South Dakota's gubernatorial runoff presents an entirely different political calculus. With no Democrat elected to the governor's office since the 1970s, Republicans dominate statewide races in South Dakota. Tuesday's runoff pits incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden against Toby Doeden, a self-made millionaire and bitcoin investor, after neither candidate secured outright victory in the June primary.
Rhoden assumed the governorship after President Donald Trump selected his predecessor, Kristi Noem, as Secretary of Homeland Security. Despite the incumbent advantage and polling leads, Rhoden faces a genuine challenge from Doeden, who finished first in June's primary.
Geographic data from the primary provides insight into the runoff dynamics. Minnehaha County, home to Sioux Falls, emerged as Doeden's base of support, propelling his first-place finish in June. Pennington County, located in South Dakota's western region, also contributed significantly to Doeden's primary performance. Both counties warrant close monitoring Tuesday as indicators of whether Doeden can maintain momentum or whether Rhoden's establishment position and polling advantages will prove decisive.
The divergence between these two races reflects fundamental asymmetries in American electoral geography. Georgia's 13th District operates as a Democratic stronghold where demographic and voting patterns consistently favor the party's candidates. The Democratic primary effectively determines the outcome.
South Dakota's gubernatorial runoff operates in inverse conditions. Republicans dominate the state's electoral landscape so thoroughly that the GOP primary functions as the decisive contest. The question is not whether a Republican will govern South Dakota, but which Republican will claim the office.
Richard Kneip, who served as governor in the 1970s and early 1980s, remains the state's last Democratic governor. Harvey Wollman, who completed Kneip's final six months, represents the last Democratic officeholder in that position—nearly 50 years of uninterrupted Republican control.
The results from both contests will provide data on distinct political phenomena: generational turnover and primary competition within safe Democratic territory, and the viability of outsider candidates in deeply Republican states. Election analysts will examine turnout patterns, demographic shifts and candidate performance across precincts and counties as indicators of broader 2026 midterm dynamics.
